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📊 LIVE TEST 1949: Will any Duel bet hit 100x or higher today?ENDED

Resolved

✓ YES

3 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: top Gold Party bet by ggg1 (txn 614413946 at 2026-05-11) — value 5082.6 vs threshold ≥ 100 → YES.

🔗 Live source ↗

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=multiplier&sort_direction=desc&days=1&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · YES
</>Embed

LIVE TEST 1949: Will any Duel bet hit 100x or higher today?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✓ YES

Closed at 50% confidence

VOL $I 0·TRADERS0· be first·
▸ Resolution rule

At close time the resolver fetches the top single-bet multiplier from the last 24h on duel.com's transparency API. YES if multiplier >= 100, otherwise NO. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"multiplier","sort_direction":"desc","days":1,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"multiplier","threshold":100,"version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Live demo of early-YES resolver behaviour. Threshold deliberately set to 100x — Duel's transparency feed always has 100x+ multipliers in the last 24h. Expecting immediate YES on the next resolver tick.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
60%41$I 22.3
57%28$I 15.1
55%20$I 10.5
53%12$I 6.2
51%4$I 2
MID50%SPREAD 2ppYES
49%4$I 2
47%12$I 6.2
45%20$I 10.5
43%28$I 15.1
40%41$I 22.3

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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