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📊 PROVISIONAL SMOKE 1241: Will any Duel bet have hit 100x yesterday?ENDED

Resolved

✓ YES

3 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: top Mines bet by letsgethigh (txn 618232024 at 2026-05-12) — value 8846.144999999971 vs threshold ≥ 100 → YES. [finalized from provisional 2026-05-12T11:42:40.472Z]

🔗 Live source ↗

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=multiplier&sort_direction=desc&days=1&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · YES
</>Embed

PROVISIONAL SMOKE 1241: Will any Duel bet have hit 100x yesterday?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✓ YES

Closed at 50% confidence

VOL $I 0·TRADERS0· be first·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits transparency API days=1 (yesterday data). YES if any bet >= 100x in window. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"multiplier","sort_direction":"desc","days":1,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"multiplier","threshold":100,"windowStart":"2026-05-12T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-05-12T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Smoke test of two-stage resolution (PR #769). Window = yesterday UTC so resolver can see real data via days=1.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
60%41$I 22.3
57%28$I 15.1
55%20$I 10.5
53%12$I 6.2
51%4$I 2
MID50%SPREAD 2ppYES
49%4$I 2
47%12$I 6.2
45%20$I 10.5
43%28$I 15.1
40%41$I 22.3

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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