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📊 Will any Duel player lose $300,000+ on a single bet this week (by May 31 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

2 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-01T00:15:46.185Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 1092bdeb2259…134bb4

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $300,000+ on a single bet this week (by May 31 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 50% confidence

VOL $I 0·TRADERS0· be first·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-05-31T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -300000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-300000,"windowStart":"2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-05-31T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending May 31 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$300,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
60%41$I 22.3
57%28$I 15.1
55%20$I 10.5
53%12$I 6.2
51%4$I 2
MID50%SPREAD 2ppYES
49%4$I 2
47%12$I 6.2
45%20$I 10.5
43%28$I 15.1
40%41$I 22.3

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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