Resolved
✗ NO
2 months ago
Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=1&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-05-20T00:15:53.792Z]
https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=1&per_page=10
Will any Duel player lose $370,000+ on a single bet on May 19 UTC?
Final outcome
✗ NO
Closed at 52% confidence
▸ Resolution rule
Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=1, filters by txn_date in [2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-05-19T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -370000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":1,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-370000,"windowStart":"2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-05-19T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]
▸ Description
Worst single-bet loss on duel.com during May 19 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$370,000 or worse.
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real
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