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📊 Will any Duel player lose $370,000+ on a single bet today?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

2 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=1&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-05-15T13:15:54.587Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 93b3512bf22e…b994d1

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=1&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $370,000+ on a single bet today?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 52% confidence

VOL $I 38.4·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=1. YES if data[0].profit <= -370000, else NO. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":1,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-370000,"windowStart":"2026-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-05-13T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com over the trailing 24 hours. Sourced from their public transparency feed — profit is signed, so losses are negative. YES if the most negative profit closes at -$370,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
58%40$I 21.5
55%28$I 14.6
53%20$I 10.2
51%12$I 6
49%4$I 2
MID48%SPREAD 2ppYES
47%4$I 2.1
45%12$I 6.4
43%20$I 10.9
41%28$I 15.6
38%41$I 23.2

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders3

  • eddy_scout👑49%21@51%
  • arspopo👑50%10@48%
  • stakeloser👑49%5@46%

NO holders2

  • arspopo👑50%34@51%
  • eddy_scout👑49%8@50%
arspopo bought NO$I 7.7
arspopo bought NO$I 0.5
eddy_scout bought YES$I 3.5
eddy_scout bought YES$I 3.4
eddy_scout bought NO$I 3.8
eddy_scout bought YES$I 3.6
arspopo bought YES$I 4.6
stakeloser bought YES$I 2.2
arspopo bought NO$I 5.7
arspopo bought NO$I 3.4

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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