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📊 Will any Duel player lose $380,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 18 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

2 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-07-19T00:15:38.688Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 29dae93eb401…d9a8ac

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $380,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 18 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 56% confidence

VOL $I 66.9·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-07-18T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -380000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-380000,"windowStart":"2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-07-18T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jul 18 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$380,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
54%40$I 19.8
51%28$I 13.4
49%20$I 9.4
47%12$I 5.5
45%4$I 1.8
MID44%SPREAD 2ppYES
43%4$I 2.3
41%12$I 7
39%21$I 12
37%29$I 17.2
34%42$I 25.6

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders4

  • arspopo👑49%28@48%
  • eddy_scout👑50%14@52%
  • trainwreck👑52%12@43%
  • stakeloser👑50%2@54%

NO holders4

  • eddy_scout👑50%29@52%
  • trainwreck👑52%20@50%
  • arspopo👑49%15@52%
  • stakeloser👑50%13@57%
eddy_scout bought NO$I 4.5
eddy_scout bought NO$I 7.9
trainwreck bought NO$I 2.4
trainwreck bought NO$I 4.4
stakeloser bought YES$I 1
eddy_scout bought YES$I 7
eddy_scout bought NO$I 2.8
arspopo bought YES$I 6
arspopo bought YES$I 7.2
trainwreck bought YES$I 5

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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