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📊 Will any Duel player lose $410,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 14 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

2 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-07-15T00:16:08.212Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 2759465b78e5…fd30a0

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $410,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 14 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 55% confidence

VOL $I 64.4·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-07-14T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -410000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-410000,"windowStart":"2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-07-14T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jul 14 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$410,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
55%40$I 20.3
52%28$I 13.7
50%20$I 9.6
48%12$I 5.7
46%4$I 1.9
MID45%SPREAD 2ppYES
44%4$I 2.2
42%12$I 6.8
40%20$I 11.6
38%29$I 16.7
35%42$I 24.8

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders3

  • trainwreck👑52%31@53%
  • eddy_scout👑50%19@52%
  • stakeloser👑50%5@55%

NO holders3

  • eddy_scout👑50%34@51%
  • trainwreck👑52%22@46%
  • arspopo👑49%17@49%
eddy_scout bought NO$I 7.2
eddy_scout bought NO$I 5.2
trainwreck bought YES$I 5.3
arspopo bought NO$I 6.9
trainwreck bought NO$I 2.7
trainwreck bought NO$I 3.7
stakeloser bought YES$I 2.9
trainwreck bought NO$I 3.7
trainwreck bought YES$I 3.7
trainwreck bought YES$I 2.8

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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