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📊 Will any Duel player lose $410,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 15 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

11 days ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-07-16T00:15:28.054Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · bb70ff284600…ea7ed2

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $410,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 15 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 44% confidence

VOL $I 73.7·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-07-15T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -410000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-410000,"windowStart":"2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-07-15T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jul 15 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$410,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
66%42$I 25.6
63%29$I 17.2
61%21$I 12
59%12$I 7
57%4$I 2.3
MID56%SPREAD 2ppYES
55%4$I 1.8
53%12$I 5.5
51%20$I 9.4
49%28$I 13.4
46%40$I 19.8

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders3

  • eddy_scout👑49%36@53%
  • trainwreck👑50%32@48%
  • stakeloser👑49%17@55%

NO holders4

  • trainwreck👑50%23@50%
  • arspopo👑50%20@47%
  • eddy_scout👑49%13@51%
  • stakeloser👑49%5@53%
eddy_scout bought YES$I 6.5
eddy_scout bought YES$I 6.3
eddy_scout bought NO$I 1.6
trainwreck bought NO$I 6.5
arspopo bought NO$I 5.7
stakeloser bought YES$I 6.3
stakeloser bought YES$I 3.1
eddy_scout bought YES$I 3.1
eddy_scout bought YES$I 2.7
trainwreck bought YES$I 6.7

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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