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📊 Will any Duel player lose $410,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 9 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

17 days ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-07-10T00:16:08.113Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 96c567011f1b…e9d29a

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $410,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 9 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 42% confidence

VOL $I 63.2·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-07-09T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -410000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-410000,"windowStart":"2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-07-09T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jul 9 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$410,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
68%43$I 27
65%30$I 18.1
63%21$I 12.6
61%12$I 7.4
59%4$I 2.4
MID58%SPREAD 2ppYES
57%4$I 1.7
55%12$I 5.3
53%20$I 9.1
51%28$I 12.9
48%40$I 19

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders1

  • topocman👑49%78@52%

NO holders3

  • eddy_scout👑49%25@53%
  • stakeloser👑49%13@52%
  • trainwreck👑50%8@41%
trainwreck bought NO$I 3.4
topocman bought YES$I 6.6
topocman bought YES$I 4.6
topocman bought YES$I 2.6
topocman bought YES$I 0.9
topocman bought YES$I 1.8
topocman bought YES$I 6
topocman bought YES$I 6.5
topocman bought YES$I 3.4
eddy_scout bought NO$I 7.4

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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