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📊 Will any Duel player lose $420,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 2 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

2 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-03T00:16:58.699Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 4f01cc4f7c85…a57acb

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $420,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 2 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 49% confidence

VOL $I 88.4·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-02T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -420000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-420000,"windowStart":"2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-02T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 2 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$420,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
61%41$I 22.8
58%28$I 15.4
56%20$I 10.8
54%12$I 6.3
52%4$I 2.1
MID51%SPREAD 2ppYES
50%4$I 2
48%12$I 6.1
46%20$I 10.3
44%28$I 14.8
41%40$I 21.8

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders4

  • arspopo👑50%37@50%
  • stakeloser👑49%27@46%
  • trainwreck👑50%25@47%
  • eddy_scout👑49%2@48%

NO holders4

  • arspopo👑50%32@51%
  • eddy_scout👑49%20@53%
  • trainwreck👑50%18@54%
  • stakeloser👑49%16@55%
arspopo bought YES$I 6.5
stakeloser bought YES$I 3.6
trainwreck bought YES$I 2.4
stakeloser bought YES$I 1.4
trainwreck bought NO$I 5.9
stakeloser bought NO$I 3.5
eddy_scout bought YES$I 1
trainwreck bought NO$I 3.7
arspopo bought YES$I 5.2
arspopo bought NO$I 7.6

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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