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📊 Will any Duel player lose $420,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 5 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

2 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-06T00:15:46.204Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 827dc26a5105…fa8fef

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $420,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 5 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 52% confidence

VOL $I 104.1·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-05T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-05T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -420000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-420000,"windowStart":"2026-06-05T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-05T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 5 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$420,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
58%40$I 21.2
55%28$I 14.4
53%20$I 10
51%12$I 5.9
49%4$I 1.9
MID48%SPREAD 2ppYES
47%4$I 2.1
45%12$I 6.5
43%20$I 11.1
41%28$I 15.9
38%41$I 23.5

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders4

  • trainwreck👑50%50@50%
  • arspopo👑50%33@52%
  • eddy_scout👑49%10@51%
  • stakeloser👑49%6@49%

NO holders3

  • arspopo👑50%68@50%
  • trainwreck👑50%22@49%
  • eddy_scout👑49%19@51%
arspopo bought NO$I 3.6
arspopo bought NO$I 6.5
arspopo bought YES$I 6.5
trainwreck bought YES$I 5.4
eddy_scout bought NO$I 2.1
eddy_scout bought NO$I 7.5
eddy_scout bought YES$I 5.2
trainwreck bought NO$I 3.4
arspopo bought NO$I 7
arspopo bought YES$I 6.7

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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