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📊 Will any Duel player lose $460,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 4 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

22 days ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-07-05T00:15:49.085Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 288bd4abdfe9…3c674a

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $460,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 4 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 57% confidence

VOL $I 52.7·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-07-04T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-07-04T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -460000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-460000,"windowStart":"2026-07-04T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-07-04T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jul 4 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$460,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
53%40$I 19.2
50%28$I 13
48%20$I 9.1
46%12$I 5.4
44%4$I 1.8
MID43%SPREAD 2ppYES
42%4$I 2.4
40%12$I 7.3
38%21$I 12.4
36%29$I 17.9
33%43$I 26.6

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders2

  • arspopo👑50%30@51%
  • trainwreck👑50%7@45%

NO holders4

  • eddy_scout👑49%26@53%
  • trainwreck👑50%15@49%
  • stakeloser👑49%14@55%
  • arspopo👑50%12@51%
stakeloser bought NO$I 6
trainwreck bought YES$I 2.5
trainwreck bought YES$I 0.6
eddy_scout bought NO$I 7.9
eddy_scout bought NO$I 5.9
stakeloser bought NO$I 1.5
arspopo bought YES$I 6.2
arspopo bought NO$I 5.9
trainwreck bought NO$I 5.3
arspopo bought YES$I 4.8

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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