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📊 Will any Duel player lose $460,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 5 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

21 days ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-07-06T00:15:49.515Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 784587c443c8…2734be

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $460,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 5 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 47% confidence

VOL $I 55.5·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-07-05T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-07-05T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -460000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-460000,"windowStart":"2026-07-05T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-07-05T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jul 5 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$460,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
63%41$I 23.7
60%28$I 16
58%20$I 11.2
56%12$I 6.5
54%4$I 2.1
MID53%SPREAD 2ppYES
52%4$I 1.9
50%12$I 5.9
48%20$I 10
46%28$I 14.3
43%40$I 21.1

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders3

  • trainwreck👑50%44@49%
  • stakeloser👑49%15@51%
  • arspopo👑50%1@53%

NO holders3

  • arspopo👑50%35@51%
  • trainwreck👑50%9@55%
  • stakeloser👑49%6@49%
arspopo bought YES$I 0.7
stakeloser bought YES$I 7.5
trainwreck bought YES$I 4.5
trainwreck bought YES$I 3.6
trainwreck bought NO$I 3.9
trainwreck bought NO$I 1.2
arspopo bought NO$I 7.7
stakeloser bought NO$I 2.8
trainwreck bought YES$I 7.5
arspopo bought NO$I 6.4

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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