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📊 Will any Duel player lose $460,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 11 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

3 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-12T00:15:46.011Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · cc1a2e69f1e5…e095ad

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $460,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 11 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 51% confidence

VOL $I 95.3·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-11T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -460000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-460000,"windowStart":"2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-11T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 11 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$460,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
59%40$I 21.8
56%28$I 14.7
54%20$I 10.3
52%12$I 6
50%4$I 2
MID49%SPREAD 2ppYES
48%4$I 2.1
46%12$I 6.3
44%20$I 10.8
42%28$I 15.5
39%41$I 22.9

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders4

  • eddy_scout👑50%40@51%
  • arspopo👑49%35@49%
  • trainwreck👑52%10@51%
  • stakeloser👑50%8@50%

NO holders4

  • eddy_scout👑50%36@51%
  • arspopo👑49%32@50%
  • stakeloser👑50%28@51%
  • trainwreck👑52%2@55%
arspopo bought NO$I 6.1
arspopo bought YES$I 7.9
arspopo bought YES$I 4.8
trainwreck bought NO$I 1.3
stakeloser bought NO$I 6.6
arspopo bought YES$I 4.2
eddy_scout bought NO$I 7.2
stakeloser bought YES$I 4
arspopo bought NO$I 6.7
arspopo bought NO$I 1.7

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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