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📊 Will any Duel player lose $470,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 13 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

3 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-14T00:15:45.517Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · a657d9632aa4…7afab4

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $470,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 13 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 56% confidence

VOL $I 101.1·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-13T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-13T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -470000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-470000,"windowStart":"2026-06-13T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-13T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 13 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$470,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
54%40$I 19.5
51%28$I 13.2
49%20$I 9.3
47%12$I 5.5
45%4$I 1.8
MID44%SPREAD 2ppYES
43%4$I 2.3
41%12$I 7.1
39%21$I 12.2
37%29$I 17.5
34%42$I 26.1

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders5

  • eddy_scout👑50%29@51%
  • stakeloser👑50%26@52%
  • trainwreck👑52%19@47%
  • arspopo👑49%10@48%
  • topocman👑46%4@50%

NO holders4

  • eddy_scout👑50%62@52%
  • arspopo👑49%21@49%
  • stakeloser👑50%16@48%
  • trainwreck👑52%14@54%
eddy_scout bought NO$I 6.6
eddy_scout bought NO$I 7.1
topocman bought YES$I 1.8
arspopo bought YES$I 4.7
eddy_scout bought NO$I 5.2
eddy_scout bought NO$I 2.5
stakeloser bought NO$I 4.6
stakeloser bought YES$I 2.7
trainwreck bought NO$I 0.9
arspopo bought NO$I 4.8

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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