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📊 Will any Duel player lose $470,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 14 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

1 month ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-15T00:15:45.562Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 507eb49b6dc1…08beaa

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $470,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 14 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 41% confidence

VOL $I 99.3·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-14T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -470000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-470000,"windowStart":"2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-14T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 14 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$470,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
69%43$I 27.7
66%30$I 18.5
64%21$I 12.9
62%13$I 7.5
60%4$I 2.4
MID59%SPREAD 2ppYES
58%4$I 1.7
56%12$I 5.3
54%20$I 8.9
52%28$I 12.7
49%40$I 18.7

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders4

  • trainwreck👑50%58@48%
  • eddy_scout👑49%30@51%
  • stakeloser👑49%20@56%
  • arspopo👑50%7@49%

NO holders4

  • eddy_scout👑49%37@51%
  • stakeloser👑49%21@53%
  • trainwreck👑50%12@55%
  • arspopo👑50%11@52%
stakeloser bought YES$I 7.6
stakeloser bought YES$I 3.9
eddy_scout bought YES$I 6.2
eddy_scout bought YES$I 1.6
eddy_scout bought NO$I 2.3
eddy_scout bought YES$I 7.3
stakeloser bought NO$I 4.3
trainwreck bought YES$I 7
trainwreck bought YES$I 1.3
stakeloser bought NO$I 6.5

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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