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📊 Will any Duel player lose $470,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 6 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

3 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-07T00:15:45.925Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 4d382584cf99…b8a8fb

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $470,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 6 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 65% confidence

VOL $I 143.3·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-06T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-06T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -470000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-470000,"windowStart":"2026-06-06T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-06T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 6 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$470,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
45%42$I 16.6
42%30$I 11.3
40%21$I 8
38%13$I 4.7
36%4$I 1.5
MID35%SPREAD 2ppYES
34%4$I 2.9
32%14$I 9
30%23$I 15.6
28%33$I 22.5
25%48$I 34

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders3

  • trainwreck👑52%54@41%
  • topocman👑46%35@35%
  • stakeloser👑50%18@38%

NO holders3

  • topocman👑46%149@60%
  • stakeloser👑50%15@65%
  • arspopo👑49%6@54%
topocman bought NO$I 3.1
topocman bought NO$I 5.2
topocman bought NO$I 2.7
topocman bought NO$I 2.4
topocman bought NO$I 3
trainwreck bought YES$I 4.7
topocman bought NO$I 3.2
topocman bought NO$I 2.9
stakeloser bought YES$I 7
topocman bought NO$I 1

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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