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📊 Will any Duel player lose $470,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 9 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

2 months ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-10T00:15:45.551Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 52e07d5dbe26…2d5f38

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $470,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 9 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 55% confidence

VOL $I 89.8·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-09T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -470000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-470000,"windowStart":"2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-09T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 9 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$470,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
55%40$I 20
52%28$I 13.5
50%20$I 9.5
48%12$I 5.6
46%4$I 1.8
MID45%SPREAD 2ppYES
44%4$I 2.3
42%12$I 6.9
40%21$I 11.9
38%29$I 17
35%42$I 25.3

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders3

  • trainwreck👑50%31@44%
  • stakeloser👑49%31@52%
  • arspopo👑50%17@48%

NO holders4

  • trainwreck👑50%31@55%
  • eddy_scout👑49%28@51%
  • stakeloser👑49%25@56%
  • arspopo👑50%16@46%
trainwreck bought NO$I 7.8
arspopo bought YES$I 2.4
stakeloser bought NO$I 1.3
trainwreck bought NO$I 0.7
stakeloser bought YES$I 3.2
trainwreck bought YES$I 2.9
trainwreck bought YES$I 7.7
stakeloser bought NO$I 6.2
trainwreck bought YES$I 1.7
trainwreck bought NO$I 1

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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