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📊 Will any Duel player lose $480,000+ on a single bet this week (by Aug 1 UTC)?ENDED
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Will any Duel player lose $480,000+ on a single bet this week (by Aug 1 UTC)?

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VOL $I 11.3·TRADES4·…·⏳ resolution incoming·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-08-01T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -480000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-480000,"windowStart":"2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-08-01T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Aug 1 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$480,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
65%42$I 25.3
62%29$I 17
60%21$I 11.9
58%12$I 7
56%4$I 2.3
MID55%SPREAD 2ppYES
54%4$I 1.8
52%12$I 5.6
50%20$I 9.5
48%28$I 13.5
45%40$I 19.9

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders1

  • arspopo👑48%21@53%

NO holders0

No NO holders yet.

arspopo bought YES$I 2.5
arspopo bought YES$I 3.5
arspopo bought YES$I 1.5
arspopo bought YES$I 3.8

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