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📊 Will any Duel player lose $480,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 17 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

1 month ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-18T00:15:46.241Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · e2628b6ecd32…2a0a20

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $480,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 17 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 52% confidence

VOL $I 115.8·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-17T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -480000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-480000,"windowStart":"2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-17T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 17 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$480,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
58%40$I 21.4
55%28$I 14.5
53%20$I 10.1
51%12$I 5.9
49%4$I 1.9
MID48%SPREAD 2ppYES
47%4$I 2.1
45%12$I 6.5
43%20$I 11
41%28$I 15.8
38%41$I 23.4

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders4

  • arspopo👑50%43@48%
  • eddy_scout👑49%40@50%
  • trainwreck👑50%17@47%
  • stakeloser👑49%11@52%

NO holders4

  • eddy_scout👑49%74@52%
  • stakeloser👑49%20@52%
  • arspopo👑50%18@51%
  • trainwreck👑50%8@48%
eddy_scout bought NO$I 3.5
stakeloser bought NO$I 3.9
eddy_scout bought YES$I 6.3
trainwreck bought YES$I 2.5
trainwreck bought YES$I 5.5
eddy_scout bought NO$I 6.4
eddy_scout bought NO$I 6.8
arspopo bought YES$I 7.1
arspopo bought YES$I 5.7
stakeloser bought NO$I 3.8

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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