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📊 Will any Duel player lose $480,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 18 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

1 month ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-19T00:15:45.498Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · f0297b35569c…aef83e

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $480,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 18 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 57% confidence

VOL $I 113.7·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-18T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -480000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-480000,"windowStart":"2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-18T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 18 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$480,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
53%40$I 19.4
50%28$I 13.2
48%20$I 9.2
46%12$I 5.4
44%4$I 1.8
MID43%SPREAD 2ppYES
42%4$I 2.3
40%12$I 7.2
38%21$I 12.3
36%29$I 17.7
33%43$I 26.3

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders4

  • eddy_scout👑49%45@51%
  • trainwreck👑50%25@48%
  • stakeloser👑49%20@50%
  • arspopo👑50%10@48%

NO holders4

  • eddy_scout👑49%73@52%
  • arspopo👑50%23@49%
  • stakeloser👑49%18@55%
  • trainwreck👑50%12@51%
stakeloser bought NO$I 7.4
eddy_scout bought NO$I 7.9
trainwreck bought YES$I 7.9
trainwreck bought YES$I 3.1
eddy_scout bought NO$I 6.2
eddy_scout bought NO$I 5.4
stakeloser bought YES$I 6.2
stakeloser bought NO$I 2.6
eddy_scout bought NO$I 3.4
eddy_scout bought NO$I 0.5

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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