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📊 Will any Duel player lose $480,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 29 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

27 days ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-30T00:15:59.145Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 3b3f7f07ea67…28a1d9

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $480,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 29 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 44% confidence

VOL $I 97·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-29T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-29T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -480000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-480000,"windowStart":"2026-06-29T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-29T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 29 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$480,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
66%42$I 25.9
63%29$I 17.4
61%21$I 12.1
59%12$I 7.1
57%4$I 2.3
MID56%SPREAD 2ppYES
55%4$I 1.8
53%12$I 5.5
51%20$I 9.3
49%28$I 13.3
46%40$I 19.6

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders2

  • eddy_scout👑49%96@52%
  • stakeloser👑49%12@55%

NO holders4

  • trainwreck👑50%33@48%
  • arspopo👑50%29@49%
  • stakeloser👑49%15@47%
  • eddy_scout👑49%8@50%
stakeloser bought YES$I 6.1
eddy_scout bought YES$I 7.8
arspopo bought NO$I 3.8
stakeloser bought NO$I 1.1
arspopo bought NO$I 4.2
trainwreck bought NO$I 1.6
eddy_scout bought YES$I 7.1
eddy_scout bought YES$I 4.7
eddy_scout bought NO$I 3
trainwreck bought NO$I 2.5

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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