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📊 Will any Duel player lose $490,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 16 UTC)?ENDED

Resolved

✗ NO

1 month ago

Resolver note · Duel oracle: no qualifying bet in window. Outcome NO. Source https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10 [finalized from provisional 2026-06-17T00:15:45.510Z]

🔗 Live source ↗🗄 Archive snapshot ↗SHA-256 · 0cccf570eff5…817d03

https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7&per_page=10

▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · NO
</>Embed

Will any Duel player lose $490,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jun 16 UTC)?

VERIFY—tap a check

Final outcome

✗ NO

Closed at 55% confidence

VOL $I 95.8·TRADES10·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-06-16T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -490000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-490000,"windowStart":"2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-06-16T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·
▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jun 16 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$490,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
55%40$I 20.1
52%28$I 13.6
50%20$I 9.5
48%12$I 5.6
46%4$I 1.8
MID45%SPREAD 2ppYES
44%4$I 2.2
42%12$I 6.9
40%20$I 11.8
38%29$I 16.9
35%42$I 25.1

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders4

  • arspopo👑50%72@47%
  • trainwreck👑50%8@45%
  • stakeloser👑49%4@46%
  • eddy_scout👑49%2@51%

NO holders5

  • topocman👑49%40@53%
  • stakeloser👑49%24@56%
  • eddy_scout👑49%18@51%
  • arspopo👑50%14@52%
  • trainwreck👑50%8@55%
arspopo bought YES$I 3.3
stakeloser bought NO$I 7.4
eddy_scout bought NO$I 4.4
eddy_scout bought NO$I 4.9
eddy_scout bought YES$I 0.8
arspopo bought YES$I 6.9
topocman bought NO$I 4.5
arspopo bought YES$I 2.7
topocman bought NO$I 3
arspopo bought YES$I 3.9

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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