Resolved
✗ NO
4 months ago
Resolver note · CORRECTED 2026-05-13: original resolver used Duel days=1 which is the previous full UTC day. The market closed on 2026-05-12, but the original evidence cited a txn from 2026-05-11 (Gold Party 1.78M). Actual top single-bet payout ON 2026-05-12 was Plinko $198,304.68 (txn_date confirmed), which is below the $380,000 threshold. Outcome flipped YES -> NO.
https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=payout&sort_direction=desc&days=1&per_page=10
▸ RESOLUTION OVERRIDDEN
A Steward changed this market's outcome inside the 7-day window.
Reason · Duel oracle pre-fix bug: days=1 returns previous UTC day, not rolling 24h. Evidence cited txn from 2026-05-11 on a market for 2026-05-12. Actual May 12 top payout was Plinko $198,304.68, well below the $380k threshold. Correct outcome is NO.
Will any single Duel bet pay out $380,000 or more today?
Final outcome
✗ NO
Closed at 52% confidence
▸ Resolution rule
Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=payout&days=1 at close. YES if data[0].payout >= 380000, else NO. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"payout","sort_direction":"desc","days":1,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"payout","threshold":380000,"version":"duel-v1"}]
▸ Description
Tracks the biggest single-bet payout on duel.com over the trailing 24 hours. Data comes from their public transparency API (no auth, no login). YES if the top payout closes at $380,000 or above.
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real
▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+]
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