Resolved
✗ NO
3 months ago
Resolver note · CORRECTED 2026-05-13: same Duel days=1 windowing bug as the $380k market. Actual top single-bet payout on 2026-05-12 was Plinko $198,304.68, below the $590,000 threshold. Outcome flipped YES -> NO.
https://duel.com/api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=payout&sort_direction=desc&days=1&per_page=10
▸ RESOLUTION OVERRIDDEN
A Steward changed this market's outcome inside the 7-day window.
Reason · Duel oracle pre-fix bug: same as $380k correction. May 12 top payout $198,304 < $590k threshold. Correct outcome NO.
Will any single Duel bet pay out $590,000 or more today?
Final outcome
✗ NO
Closed at 55% confidence
▸ Resolution rule
Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=payout&days=1 at close. YES if data[0].payout >= 590000, else NO. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"payout","sort_direction":"desc","days":1,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"payout","threshold":590000,"version":"duel-v1"}]
▸ Description
Tracks the biggest single-bet payout on duel.com over the trailing 24 hours. Data comes from their public transparency API (no auth, no login). YES if the top payout closes at $590,000 or above.
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real
▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+]
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