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Creator profile

trainwreck

👑 LegendNewKARMA1000· joined 1 month ago
🜲 GENESIS
PREDICTOR #6

Markets created

0

none yet

Resolve accuracy

—

no resolutions yet

Predict accuracy

46%

60 of 130 correct

Karma

1000

untouched — 1000/1000

Lifetime profit

-$I 65.9

2510 trades

Reputation breakdown

90-day window · recomputed nightly

Tier

○Novice

default — earn karma + age to promote

Predict accuracy (weighted)

46%

harder markets count more

Coherence (jury)

—

need ≥ 3 votes to compute (0 so far)

Civic score

0

no upheld disputes filed in window

Calibration

all-time · settled non-void positions

Predicted 35% → actual 17% (6 predictions)Predicted 45% → actual 5% (96 predictions)Predicted 55% → actual 10% (71 predictions)Predicted 65% → actual 0% (3 predictions)02550751000255075100PREDICTED %ACTUAL %
Brier · 0.245Noisy

176 settled · 0 = perfect, 0.25 = coinflip

Dots on the diagonal = well-calibrated. Above = underconfident. Below = overconfident. Dot size = how many predictions landed in that bucket.

Markets by trainwreck

No markets created yet.

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