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📊 Will any Duel player lose $350,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 20 UTC)?ENDED

▸ MARKET · AWAITING RESOLUTION

Will any Duel player lose $350,000+ on a single bet this week (by Jul 20 UTC)?

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↑+5pp

VOL $I 21.8·TRADES6·…·⏳ resolution incoming·

▸ Resolution rule

Resolver hits /api/v2/transparency/bets?sort_column=profit&sort_direction=asc&days=7, filters by txn_date in [2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z, 2026-07-20T23:55:00.000Z). YES if top in-window profit <= -350000, else NO at close. [oracle-config:{"kind":"bets_top","query":{"sort_column":"profit","sort_direction":"asc","days":7,"per_page":10},"comparison":"gte","metric":"profit","threshold":-350000,"windowStart":"2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z","windowEnd":"2026-07-20T23:55:00.000Z","version":"duel-v1"}]

·

▸ Description

Worst single-bet loss on duel.com for the week ending Jul 20 UTC, from their public transparency feed. Profit is signed (losses negative). YES if the most negative in-window profit is -$350,000 or worse.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME

▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]

PRICESHARES$I COST

65%42$I 25.4

62%29$I 17.1

60%21$I 11.9

58%12$I 7

56%4$I 2.3

MID55%SPREAD 2ppYES

54%4$I 1.8

52%12$I 5.6

50%20$I 9.4

48%28$I 13.5

45%40$I 19.9

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders1

arspopo50%32@52%

NO holders2

stakeloser49%7@52%
trainwreck50%3@51%

arspopo bought YES$I 2.1

arspopo bought YES$I 3.4

arspopo bought YES$I 5.4

arspopo bought YES$I 5.6

stakeloser bought NO$I 3.6

trainwreck bought NO$I 1.7

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