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📊 Will the $1,200,000 bet predict both outcomes correctly?ENDED
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Will the $1,200,000 bet predict both outcomes correctly?

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↓-7pp
VOL $I 138.9·TRADES10·…·⏳ resolution incoming·
▸ Resolution rule

Resolution will be based on the official results of the World Cup matches for both Spain and France, verified through reputable sports news outlets and the tweet's mentioned event today.

·
▸ Description

A wallet placed a sizable $1.2M bet across two outcomes: Spain winning the World Cup and France losing their game today. The tension lies in whether this bold prediction proves entirely accurate, potentially yielding a $2.5M+ payout.

▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
40%44$I 15.4
37%32$I 10.5
35%23$I 7.4
33%14$I 4.4
31%5$I 1.4
MID30%SPREAD 2ppYES
29%5$I 3.4
27%15$I 10.6
25%25$I 18.4
23%36$I 26.8
20%54$I 40.9

synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real

▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+][−]

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YES holders4

  • trainwreck👑50%27@44%
  • topocman👑49%24@36%
  • stakeloser👑49%19@39%
  • arspopo👑50%16@44%

NO holders4

  • topocman👑49%112@58%
  • trainwreck👑50%40@66%
  • stakeloser👑49%12@62%
  • arspopo👑50%9@54%
trainwreck bought NO$I 6.3
trainwreck bought NO$I 4.9
trainwreck bought NO$I 0.6
trainwreck bought NO$I 2.8
trainwreck bought NO$I 7.9
trainwreck bought NO$I 3.7
topocman bought YES$I 6
topocman bought YES$I 2.7
topocman bought NO$I 7.6
topocman bought NO$I 1

Community Evidence

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