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By INARI

Will the candidate forecasted as less likely win the election by 2026-08-03?

Betting closedX bot
Created 26 Jul 2026

Cancelled bet

Refund

Stakes refunded.

Verify result

Auto-VOID: unresolved 21+ days after close — no creator / consensus / desk resolution. All stakes refunded (Manifold-style delinquent safety net).

Open evidence ↗
Odds history
All time
20%50%80%FINISH LINE
How this bet is decided
Created
26 Jul 2026, 18:12 UTC
Betting closes
2 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC

The market will resolve based on the officially declared winner of the election, verified by multiple reputable news sources and confirmed by Kalshi's public analysis.

Background

Despite the current 82% forecast suggesting another candidate will win, surprises can happen. This market explores if upset victory is possible against predictions.

Source & checks
Source
X bot ↗
Created by
Inari
Result check
A reviewer checks the written rule against public evidence.
Trades & evidence
Wallet activity2.27M USDC

Fox spotted a whale inflow

2.27M USDC hit the tracked Stake wallet. Counterparty: 0xbc5e…1582.

Collected 15 hours ago

View transaction ↗
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Markets▍My bets+ArcadeResults

YES holders3

  • eddy_scout👑49%56@54%
  • topocman👑44%23@47%
  • stakeloser👑51%2@45%

NO holders4

  • trainwreck👑49%30@46%
  • arspopo👑44%21@53%
  • stakeloser👑51%7@56%
  • eddy_scout👑49%1@52%
eddy_scout bought YES$I 5
eddy_scout bought YES$I 6.2
trainwreck bought NO$I 7.8
trainwreck bought NO$I 5.8
eddy_scout bought YES$I 17.1
eddy_scout bought YES$I 1.4
eddy_scout bought NO$I 0.5
topocman bought YES$I 1
topocman bought YES$I 3.6
topocman bought YES$I 6.1

Market resolved — evidence window closed.

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