📊 Will the candidate forecasted as less likely win the election by 2026-08-03?ENDED
Resolved
✗ NO
19 days ago
Resolver note · Auto-VOID: unresolved 21+ days after close — no creator / consensus / desk resolution. All stakes refunded (Manifold-style delinquent safety net).
https://www.inari.markets/markets/will-the-candidate-forecasted-as-less-likely-win-the-election-by-2026-08-03
▸ MARKET · RESOLVED · VOID
Will the candidate forecasted as less likely win the election by 2026-08-03?
VERIFYtap a check
Market voided
◇ VOID
Stakes refunded
VOL $I 70.4·TRADES10··
▸ Resolution rule
The market will resolve based on the officially declared winner of the election, verified by multiple reputable news sources and confirmed by Kalshi's public analysis.
▸ Description
Despite the current 82% forecast suggesting another candidate will win, surprises can happen. This market explores if upset victory is possible against predictions.
▸ PROBABILITY RACE · ALL TIME
▸ ORDER BOOK · AMM DEPTH[+][−]
PRICESHARES$I COST
66%42$I 25.6
63%29$I 17.2
61%21$I 12
59%12$I 7
57%4$I 2.3
MID56%SPREAD 2ppYES
55%4$I 1.8
53%12$I 5.5
51%20$I 9.4
49%28$I 13.4
46%40$I 19.8
synthesised from LMSR curve · price impact = real
▸ MORE DETAILS · holders · trades · evidence[+]
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