Will the probability for @Polymarket launching a token by December 2026 exceed 18% by August 21, 2026?
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Auto-VOID: unresolved 21+ days after close — no creator / consensus / desk resolution. All stakes refunded (Manifold-style delinquent safety net).
Odds history
All time
How this bet is decided
- Created
- 14 Aug 2026, 14:35 UTC
- Betting closes
- 21 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
The probability percentage will be verified based on public updates or announcements from @predictdotfun or a credible data feed tracking these probabilities by August 21, 2026.
Background
The tweet mentions a drop in launch probabilities for major players like Polymarket. Betting on whether Polymarket's token launch odds will rebound above 18% by next week introduces a real tension point amidst ongoing market speculation.
Source & checks
- Source
- X bot ↗
- Created by
- Inari
- Result check
- A reviewer checks the written rule against public evidence.